Perbandingan Prediksi Obat Berdasarkan Pemakaian Menggunakan Algoritma Single Moving Average dan Support Vector Regression
 Said Nurfan Hidayad Tillah (Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia)
(*)Alwis Nazir  (Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia)
Iwan Iskandar (Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia)
Elvia Budianita (Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia)
Iis Afrianty (Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia)
(*) Corresponding Author Submitted: October 3, 2023; Published: October 24, 2023 |
Abstract
To ensure the availability and quality of drugs, Public Health Centers (PHC) must pay attention to the planning and procurement process. The problem that often arises is the increase in drug stock due to the stable use of drugs each month, resulting in excess and expired drugs that are not used. In addition, it is necessary to avoid inappropriate drug demand, which affects stock availability. Drug usage prediction is done with several methods such as the Single Moving Average (SMA) algorithm in the data mining method and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm in the machine learning method. This algorithm was chosen because the drug data of Diazepam 5 mg and Mefenamic Acid 500 mg is sustainable from January 2020 to June 2023 (42 months). Implementation using the Phyton programming language. Testing using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method, this study aims to measure the accuracy of predictions in each algorithm. In research with Diazepam 5 mg and Mefenamic Acid 500 mg drugs, with a division of 80% in training data and 20% in test data. With a calculation of 3 periods, the SMA algorithm produces MAPE values of 4.10% and 4.29%, in the "very good" range. The SVR algorithm, which uses an RBF kernel with a complexity parameter of 1.0 and an epsilon parameter of 0.1, produces MAPE results of 7.35% and 9.52%, in the "Very Good" range. Thus, the SMA algorithm predicts better than the SVR algorithm.
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