Optimalisasi JST dalam Memprediksi Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Untuk Perencanaan dan Pengembangan Pariwisata yang Efektif

 (*)Riki Winanjaya Mail (STIKOM Tunas Bangsa, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia)
 Harly Okprana (STIKOM Tunas Bangsa, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia)

(*) Corresponding Author

Submitted: September 1, 2023; Published: October 24, 2023

Abstract

Foreign tourist predictions assist the government and stakeholders in planning long- and short-term tourism strategies. Accurate information on the estimated number of tourists enables appropriate infrastructure development, efficient budget allocation and setting of relevant policies. Foreign tourists discussed in this study are foreign tourists based in ASEAN countries. This research will utilize historical data on foreign tourist arrivals from the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Law and Human Rights (Directorate General of Immigration) and Mobile Positioning Data. The data that has been obtained will be processed and filtered to obtain relevant and accurate data before being used as input in the creation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The algorithm proposed in this study is the Cyclical Rule algorithm with the optimization of the Bayesian Regulation algorithm, which can be used to solve data prediction problems. This study was analyzed using 10 (ten) architectural models, including 4-4-1, 4-5-1, 4-8-1, 4-10-1, 4-12-1, 4-15-1, 4-16-1, 4-20-1, 4-24-1, and 4-25-1. Based on the analysis, the results obtained from the 4-10-1 model with the optimization of the Bayesian Regulation algorithm as the best model with the smallest testing MSE compared to the other models, equal to 0.00786961. Based on the prediction results, foreign tourist arrivals from ASEAN countries in 2023 are expected to decrease compared to 2022. Tourism actors can take advantage of the results of this prediction to improve the quality and quantity of services provided to tourists, as well as adjust the needs of tourists with the resources available at tourist destinations.

Keywords


International Tourists; ASEAN; Optimization; Predictions; ANN

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