Aplikasi Prakiraan Perkembangan Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web

Authors

  • Tsinmi Tri Azkiya Waslin Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara, Medan
  • Oris Krianto Sulaiman Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara, Medan
  • Tasliyah Haramaini Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara, Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30865/mib.v6i3.4408

Keywords:

COVID-19, REST API, Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

ARSCoV2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) is a virus cause of COVID-19 that has spread to many other countries. A variety of efforts is carried out mostly countries in the world to face this disease. The result of increased case of COVID-19 the economy is inspiring and providing pressure on the future economic growth including Indonesia’s economic growth. UN-defined COVID-19 pandemi, impact on sector transportation, tourism, trading, health and others. The purpose of this research is to design and create COVID-19 case development forecast in Indonesia by implementing REST API services and using the single exponential smoothing method as a mathematical method to calculate the development forecast COVID-19 cases in Indonesia are confirmed with the date to help minimize losses materials and immaterials, for the readiness of the Indonesian government in conducting rapid precautions and appropriately to help the general public to obtain COVID-19 and forecast information the development. Research results on COVID-19 data in Indonesia in March 2020 until April 2022 obtaining the value of the MAPE error model of 7.97% where 7.97% ≤ 10% so included in the level category high accuracy with forecast results in the next month, May 2022 is 5,327,773 cases.

References

F. Wu et al., “A New Coronavirus Associated With Human Respiratory Disease in China,†Nature, vol. 579, no. 7798, pp. 265–269, 2020, doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3.

P. Yang and X. Wang, “COVID-19: A New Challenge For Human Beings,†Cellular and Molecular Immunology, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 555–557, 2020, doi: 10.1038/s41423-020-0407-x.

T. P. Velavan and M. Christian G., “The COVID-19 Epidemic,†Tropical Medicine and International Health, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 278–280, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.1111/tmi.13383.

M. kirose Berihe, G. F. Feyissa, and M. C. Tadesse, “Impact of COVID19 on Tourism and Hotels of Ethiopia,†Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Sports, vol. 49, pp. 8–13, May 2020, doi: 10.7176/jths/49-02.

S. N. L. Nalini, “Dampak Dampak covid-19 terhadap Usaha MIkro, Kecil dan Menengah,†Jesya (Jurnal Ekonomi & Ekonomi Syariah), vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 662–669, 2021, doi: 10.36778/jesya.v4i1.278.

Kementerian Keuangan RI, “Siaran Pers Menjaga Ekonomi Indonesia Terhadap Dampak Negatif Pandemik COVID-19,†Mar. 18, 2020. https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/publikasi/siaran-pers/siaran-pers-menjaga-ekonomi-indonesia-terhadap-dampak-negatif-pandemik-covid-19/ (accessed Feb. 24, 2022).

R. Gustriansyah, “Analisis Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dengan Brown Exponential Smoothing Pada Studi Kasus Memprediksi Kuantiti Penjualan Produk Farmasi Di Apotek,†Feb. 2017.

D. M. Khairina, A. Muaddam, S. Maharani, and H. R. Hatta, “Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method,†in Strengthening Planning & Implementation of Energy, Environment, Epidemiology And Information System as A Respond To Industrial Revolution 4.0, 2019. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/201.

W. Handoko, “Prediksi Jumlah Penerimaan Mahasiswa Baru dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing,†JURTEKSI (Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 125–132, Jun. 2019, doi: 10.33330/jurteksi.v5i2.356.

C. M. Gibran, S. Setiyawati, and F. Liantoni, “Prediksi Penambahan Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Time Series Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing,†Jurnal Informatika Universitas Pamulang, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 112–117, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.32493/informatika.v6i1.9442.

A. Lawi, B. L. E. Panggabean, and T. Yoshida, “Evaluating GraphQL and REST API Services Performance in a Massive and Intensive Accessible Information System,†MDPI, vol. 10, no. 11, Nov. 2021, doi: 10.3390/computers10110138.

G. L. W. S. Rahayu and I. B. G. Anandita, “Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Barang,†Jurnal Sains Komputer & Informatika (J-SAKTI, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 433–441, Sep. 2019, [Online]. Available: http://tunasbangsa.ac.id/ejurnal/index.php/jsakti

C. M. Gibran, S. Setiyawati, and F. Liantoni, “Prediksi Penambahan Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Time Series Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing,†Jurnal Informatika Universitas Pamulang, vol. 6, no. 1, p. 112, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.32493/informatika.v6i1.9442.

S. Shahid and SK. A. Rahaman, “Exponential Smoothing Methods for Detection of the Movement of Stock Prices,†International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE), vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 1420–1422, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.35940/ijrte.e6409.018520.

N. Hudaningsih, S. F. Utami, and W. A. A. Jabbar, “Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknil PT.Sunthi Sepuri Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smooting,†Jurnal JINTEKS, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 15–22, Feb. 2020.

R. Ramadania, “Peramalan Harga Beras Bulanan di Tingkat Penggilingan dengan Metode Weighted Moving Average,†Buletin Ilmiah Math. Stat. dan Terapannya (Bimaster), vol. 07, no. 4, pp. 329–334, 2018.

M. A. Muzani, M. I. A. Sukri, S. N. Fauziah, W. M. Pradnya, and A. Suyonto, “Algoritma Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Untuk Perkiraan Intensitas Curah Hujan,†SISFOTEK, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 102–106, Sep. 2021.

Downloads

Published

2022-07-25

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 3 (2022): Juli 2022

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).