Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Analisa Peramalan Penjualan

Authors

  • Agustinus Budi Santoso Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer, Semarang
  • Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna Universitas Victory Sorong, Sorong
  • Kristy Isnaningtyas Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer, Semarang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30865/mib.v5i2.2951

Keywords:

Single Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting, Stock, Sales, Pharmacy

Abstract

Pharmacies are part of the distribution category of drug sales and purchases. The demand for drugs becomes a focal point in the distribution of customers to drugs. Employees act to prepare and record drug purchase orders for the following month. The activity of sorting the available and unavailability of drug supply data often takes a long time. Exponential smoothing method is a method of forecasting moving averages by providing easy-to-analyze weighting. Time series sales data with Exponential Smoothing forecasting method is expected to be able to handle optimal inventory for controlling drug stock inventory. The use of data for the last 6 months as reference data for recording the past for forecasting experiments for the next 3 months. Experiments with different Alpha tests for accuracy in real life. The results of the experiment with alpha 0.3 are close to the real value in forecasting the next 3 months.

References

Ferawati, K. Davita Fersiartha, and I. Yuliana, “Analisis Pengaruh Persediaan Barang Dan Penjualan Terhadap Laba Perusahaan (Studi Kasus Cv Davin Jaya Karimun),†J. Cafe., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 33–44, 2020, doi: 10.51742/akuntansi.v1i2.146.

S. Zalukhu and I. Handriani, “Aplikasi Sistem Inventory (Studi Kasus : Pt . Cakra Medika Utama),†JSAI, Vol. 2 Nomor 1, Januari 2019, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 116–122, 2019.

V. A. Pradana and R. R. Jakaria, “Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Menggunakan,†Bina Tek., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 9–14, 2020.

A. S. D. Rini Septiani Sukanda, “Tinjauan Atas Pengelolaan Persediaan Bahan Baku Pada Divisi Kendaraan Khusus PT. Pindad (Persero) Kota Bandung,†J. Ris. Akunt. / Vol X / No.1 / April 2018, vol. X, no. 1, 2018.

A. Raharja, W. Angraeni, and R. Aulia Vinarti, “Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penggunaan Waktu Telepon Di PT.Telkomsel Divre 3 Surabaya,†J. Sist. Inf., vol. 59, p. 73, 2017.

L. Ni, S. Wiwik, R. Ginantra, I. Bagus, and G. Anandita, “Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Barang,†J. Sains Komput. Inform. Vol. 3 Nomor 2 Sept. 2019, pp. 433-441 ISSN2548-9771/EISSN2549-7200, vol. 3, no. September, pp. 433–441, 2019.

S. Fachrurrazi, “Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing pada Toko Obat Bintang Geurugok,†20 Techsi Vol. 6 No. 1 , April 2015, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 19–30, 2015.

S. A. Faisol, “Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Jumlah Klaim Di BPJS Kesehatan Pamekasan,†J. Mat. “MANTIK†Ed. Oktober 2016. Vol. 02 No. 01. ISSN 2527-3159. E-ISSN 2527-3167, vol. 02, no. 01, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310316155_PENERAPAN_METODE_EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING_UNTUK_PERAMALAN_JUMLAH_KLAIM_DI_BPJS_KESEHATAN_PAMEKASAN.

N. H. A. S. Al Ihsan, H. H. Dzakiyah, and F. Liantoni, “Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia,†Ultim. J. Tek. Inform., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 89–94, 2020, doi: 10.31937/ti.v12i2.1689.

A. M. Al’afi, W. Widiart, D. Kurniasari, and M. Usman, “Peramalan Data Time Series Seasonal Menggunakan Metode Analisis Spektral,†J. Siger Mat., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 10–15, 2020, doi: 10.23960/jsm.v1i1.2484.

Prof. Dr. Sugiyono, Metode Penelitian Kombinasi (Mixed Metods). Bandung: Alfabeta., 2012.

N. P. L. Santiari and I. G. S. Rahayuda, “Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Pada Toko Gitar,†JOINTECS (Journal Inf. Technol. Comput. Sci., vol. 5, no. 3, p. 203, 2020, doi: 10.31328/jointecs.v5i3.1520.

S. R. Albert Stephano , Shantika Martha, “Sistem Informasi Peramalan Tren Pelanggan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Di Mess Gm,†Coding J. Komput. dan Apl., vol. 08, no. Vol 8, No 1 (2020): Coding : Jurnal Komputer dan Aplikasi, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://jurnal.untan.ac.id/index.php/jcskommipa/article/view/39767.

A. ELVARITA, T. Iriani, and S. S. Handoyo, “Pengembangan Bahan Ajar Mekanika Tanah Berbasis E-Modul Pada Program Studi Pendidikan Teknik Bangunan, Universitas Negeri Jakarta,†J. PenSil, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1–7, 2020, doi: 10.21009/jpensil.v9i1.11987.

M. Sari, “NATURAL SCIENCE : Jurnal Penelitian Bidang IPA dan Pendidikan IPA , ISSN : 2715-470X ( Online ), 2477 – 6181 ( Cetak ) Penelitian Kepustakaan ( Library Research ) dalam Penelitian Pendidikan IPA,†Nat. Sci. J. Penelit. Bid. IPA dan Pendidik. IPA, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 41–53, 2020.

S. Sofiana, S. Suparti, A. R. Hakim, and I. Triutami, “Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pesawat Di Bandara Internasional Ahmad Yani Dengan Metode Holt Winter’S Exponential Smoothing Dan Metode Exponential Emoothing Event Based,†J. Gaussian, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 535–545, 2020, doi: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i4.29448.

A. Purwanto and S. N. Afiyah, “Sistem Peramalan Produksi Jagung Provinsi Jawa Barat Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,†J. Ilm. Teknol. Inf. Asia, vol. 14, no. 2, p. 85, 2020, doi: 10.32815/jitika.v14i2.462.

Downloads

Published

2021-04-25

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 2 (2021): April 2021

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).