A Optimization of Sales Strategies and Inventory Forecasting for Processed Banana Products Utilizing the Conceptual Framework of Economic Efficiency and Accounting Precision Based on Simple Moving Average
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30865/jurikom.v13i1.9505Keywords:
Double Moving Average, Demand Forecasting, Inventory Management, Economic Efficiency, Accounting AccuracyAbstract
Fluctuations in demand for processed banana products often lead to inaccurate inventory planning at the MSME scale, resulting in decreased operational efficiency and potential accounting inaccuracies in inventory valuation and the calculation of Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The calculation of raw material stock forecasting for 2024-2025 produces the following predicted values: 124 bunches of bananas, 80 pieces of chocolate, 81 kg of cooking oil, and 42 kg of granulated sugar. This simple, fast, and accurate forecasting process enables producers to more accurately predict product demand, ultimately reducing the risk of overstocking or shortages. This study aims to optimize sales strategies and inventory forecasting for processed banana products through a conceptual framework that integrates economic efficiency. The method used is the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to forecast inventory needs based on historical sales data at the BananaChips MSME, by testing several variations of the forecasting period to obtain the most stable and representative results. Overall, the recapitulation results show that the Cooking Oil raw material has the highest forecasting accuracy, with the lowest MAPE of 1.81% (MAD 1.50, MSE 5.20). Meanwhile, Granulated Sugar raw material recorded the highest MAPE value of 5.08% (MAD 2.25, MSE 9.73), followed by Chocolate (MAPE 2.43%) and Banana (MAPE 2.18%). The implementation results show an increase in stock management efficiency of up to 20% and a 15% decrease in excess raw materials. These findings indicate that integrating SMA forecasting with an economic efficiency framework and accounting accuracy can improve the quality of inventory and sales decision-making, thereby strengthening the profitability and sustainability of the banana-processed product business at the Bananachips MSME
References
[1] M. Musoffan, S. Qamariyah, and Moh. Syarif, “Strategi peningkatkan produktivitas umkm melalui ‘Sapu Tangan Biru’ di Pamekasan,” Journal of Management and Digital Business, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 545–563, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.53088/jmdb.v4i3.1158.
[2] E. Lia Riani Kore, D. Fitri Septarini, J. Manajemen, and F. Ekonomi dan Bisnis, “ANALISIS KINERJA USAHA MIKRO KECIL DAN MENENGAH (UMKM) (Studi Kasus Pada UMKM Sektor Industri Kecil Formal Di Kabupaten Merauke),” APRIL, vol. IX, no. 1, pp. 22–37, 2018, [Online]. Available: www.depkop.go.id
[3] Purani and T. P. Trinandari Prasetya Nugrahanti, “Journal of Innovative and Creativity,” 2025.
[4] I. N. Sukayasa, “Peran regulasi hukum bisnis dalam mendorong kepatuhan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM): Review jurnal sistematis,” Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 559–571, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.2078.
[5] N. P. Lestari and Z. Choirunnisa, “Transformasi Digital dan Ketahanan UMKM: Systematic Literature Review (SLR),” JAMBURA ECONOMIC EDUCATION JOURNAL, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 355–372, 2025.
[6] W. N. Hidayat, Y. Yusnaini, J. Akuntansi, F. Ekonomi, and U. Sriwijaya, “Dampak Sistem Informasi Akuntansi terhadap UMKM di Kawasan Asia: Tinjauan Literatur Sistematis,” vol. 6, p. 3125, 2025.
[7] H. M. Al-Hattami, “The influence of accounting information system on management control effectiveness: The perspective of SMEs in Yemen,” Information Development, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 75–93, Mar. 2024, doi: 10.1177/02666669221087184.
[8] E. E. Alharasis, “Evaluating AIS Implementation to Improve Accounting Information Quality: The Prospect in Jordanian Family SMEs in the Post-Covid-19 Age,” Journal of Family Business Management, vol. 15, no. 3, 2024.
[9] R. L. Oktav, W. Suci, and A. Rahmi, “Pengaruh pengelolaan keuangan terhadap keberhasilan UMKM: Kajian berdasarkan hasil penelitian terkini,” Journals of Indonesian Multidisciplinary Research, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 86–100, Nov. 2024, doi: 10.61291/ykqeqg49.
[10] B. E. Cahyani, “ANALISIS PENGELOLAAN KEUANGAN USAHA MIKRO, KECIL, DAN MENENGAH (Studi Kasus Pada Paguyuban Keramik Dinoyo Malang),” Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, vol. 9, no. 2, 2021.
[11] Bella, A. Valencia, A. Herlim, J. S. Sitorus, N. Made, and W. S. Sanjaya, “The Influence Of Financial Literacy, Financial Attitudes, Competencies And The Use Of Financial Technology On Financial Management (Case Study Of Umkm In East Medan),” Management Studies and Entrepreneurship Journal, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 2621–2628, 2025, [Online]. Available: http://journal.yrpipku.com/index.php/msej
[12] Muhammad Suras, Darwis, and Syahriyah Semaun, “PENGELOLAAN KEUANGAN USAHA MIKRO, KECIL, DAN MENENGAH (UMKM) PADA USAHA BUMBUNG INDAH KOTA PAREPARE (ANALISIS MANAJEMEN KEUANGAN SYARIAH),” Moneta: Jurnal Manajemen & Keuangan Syariah, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 28–41, Apr. 2024, doi: 10.35905/moneta.v2i2.9003.
[13] D. Purnamasari, E. R. Arumi, and A. Primadewi, “Implementasi Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Prediksi Stok Produsen,” JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer), vol. 9, no. 5, p. 1495, Oct. 2022, doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v9i5.4946.
[14] T. Wahyuni, A. Primadewi, and E. Ully Artha, “KLIK: Kajian Ilmiah Informatika dan Komputer Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Potel Ketela,” Media Online), vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 2947–2954, 2024, doi: 10.30865/klik.v4i6.1954.
[15] Sariati et al., “Implementasi Simple dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Peramalan Produksi Keripik Labu Kuning pada UMKM X di Pontianak Implementation of Simple and Weighted Moving Average in Forecasting the Production of Yellow Pumpkin Chips at MSME X in Pontianak,” Agustus, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 40–48, 2025.
[16] W. Nurlela et al., “Analisis Metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, dan Arima dalam Peramalan Permintaan untuk Pengendalian Stok Floor Rear (Studi Kasus : PT. SAI),” Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Industri Terapan (JTMIT), vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 1066–1075, 2025.
[17] A. E. Pradina, N. Vendyansyah, and R. Primaswara Prasetya, “PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DALAM SISTEM PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PADA TOKO SERAGAM SEKOLAH AYZAM,” 2023.
[18] A. R. Mohammed, K. S. Hassan, and M. A. M. Abdel-Aal, “Moving Average Smoothing for Gregory-Newton Interpolation: A Novel Approach for Short-Term Demand Forecasting,” in IFAC-PapersOnLine, Elsevier B.V., 2022, pp. 749–754. doi: 10.1016/j.ifacol.2022.09.499.
[19] E. Noor, S. Dewi, A. A. Chamid, J. Gondangmanis, B. Kudus, and J. Tengah, “Implementation of Single Moving Average Methods For Sales Forecasting Of Bag In Convection Tas Loram Kulon,” TRANSFORMTIKA, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 113–125, 2019.
[20] P. Huriati, A. Erianda, A. Alanda, D. Meidelfi, and A. Irma Suryani, “Implementation of the Moving Average Method for Forecasting Inventory in Cv. Tre Jaya Perkasa,” 2022.
[21] P. Gangothri and Y. R. Reddy, “Trend Analysis by Using Simple Moving Average”, doi: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS.
[22] U. Ejder and S. A. Özel, “A novel distance-based moving average model for improvement in the predictive accuracy of financial time series,” Borsa Istanbul Review, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 376–397, Mar. 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.01.011.
[23] K. Harahap, “Jurnal Info Digit) eISSN29880289 Vo l. 2 No. 3A November,” 2024. [Online]. Available: http://kti.potensi-utama.ac.id/index.php/JID
