Influence of a Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz on Indonesia’s Fertilizer Production: A System Dynamics Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30865/jurikom.v13i4.10050Keywords:
System Dynamics, Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer supply chain, sulfur dependency, geopolitical risk, food securityAbstract
This study presents a System Dynamics model integrating maritime chokepoint risk in the Strait of Hormuz with mineral-fertilizer supply-chain dynamics, applied to PT Pupuk Indonesia. The problem addressed is that Indonesia's compound-NPK production depends on imported sulfur, phosphate, and potassium, leaving it exposed to a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz through which most of its sulfur supply transits. A continuous-time stock-and-flow model of four raw-material subsystems with first-order sourcing delays, a normalized logistic production response, and a downstream agricultural submodule is validated structurally, parametrically, behaviorally, and under extreme conditions, then analyzed across 2,000 Monte Carlo runs. Under a 180-day total blockade, urea remains fully insulated by domestic gas while NPK is drawn to a critical near-miss trough of 64% as the sulfur buffer falls to 21 equivalent days. Blockade duration and sulfur dependency dominate risk, with 20% of scenarios reaching production halt by day 240, while buffers exceeding 180 days preserve output above 97%. A combined strategy of extended strategic buffer and accelerated alternative sourcing sustains output across all scenarios. We quantify working-capital, fiscal-subsidy, and real-option dimensions and propose a Strategic Sulfur Reserve of about 180 days of consumption as the principal policy contribution for strengthening national food-security resilience.
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