Prediction of the Number of Pertalite Consumers at Gas Stations Using the Simple Moving Average Method

Zulfi Azhar; Iskandar; Yenny Puspita  Saragih

doi:10.30865/ijics.v9i3.9401

Authors

Zulfi Azhar Universitas Budi Darma
Iskandar Universitas Budi Darma
Yenny Puspita Saragih UPT SPF SMP Negeri 2 Tanjung Morawa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30865/ijics.v9i3.9401

Keywords:

Pertalite, Forecasting, Simple Moving Average, Fuel Availability, MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)

Abstract

The need for fuel oil, especially one of the Pertalite at Gas Station X in Kisaran, requires the availability of sufficient materials to serve consumers every day. Consumers will move to fill up with fuel oil to another gas station if the availability of fuel at one of the Gas Station X in Kisaran is not sufficient to serve fuel oil to consumers. The next purchase of fuel oil by one of the Gas Station X in Kisaran still uses manual calculations based on old data that has not been updated. Forecasting is an activity to find out what will happen in the future, by using data from the past. Forecasting with the Single Moving Average method is used as an important tool in effective planning, especially in this study. The final result of this study is that using a moving period of 3 because it has the smallest MAPE value of 6.12% and is less than 10% (very good forecasting ability).

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