Optimasi Pemodelan Peramalan Penjualan Produk UMKM Menggunakan Damped Parameter pada Metode Holt-Winters Additive
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30865/json.v7i4.9735Keywords:
UMKM, Holt-Winter Additive, Parameter Damped, Peramalan, OptimasiAbstract
Perkembangan Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) serta kemajuan teknologi informasi mendorong kebutuhan pengelolaan bisnis yang lebih berbasis data, khususnya dalam perencanaan penjualan dan pengendalian persediaan. Namun, sebagian besar UMKM masih menghadapi permasalahan ketidakakuratan prediksi permintaan yang menyebabkan terjadinya overstock maupun stockout. Kondisi tersebut dipengaruhi oleh pola penjualan yang fluktuatif dan musiman sehingga diperlukan metode peramalan yang mampu menghasilkan prediksi lebih akurat dan adaptif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model peramalan penjualan produk UMKM menggunakan metode Holt-Winters Additive dengan optimasi damped parameter melalui teknik Grid Search Optimization. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan data primer penjualan UMKM periode Januari–Desember 2025 yang diolah menggunakan software Python dengan library pandas, numpy, dan statsmodels. Proses optimasi dilakukan dengan menguji berbagai kombinasi parameter α, β, γ, dan φ untuk memperoleh model dengan nilai kesalahan peramalan terendah berdasarkan indikator Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi parameter α = 0,6; β = 0,8; γ = 0,1; dan φ = 0,98 menghasilkan tingkat akurasi terbaik dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 3,90%. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa optimasi damped parameter mampu meningkatkan stabilitas dan akurasi peramalan sehingga dapat membantu UMKM dalam pengelolaan persediaan dan perencanaan produksi secara lebih optimal.
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